Institute for Disease Modeling

Institute for Disease Modeling is an institute within the Global Good Fund, controlled by Intellectual Ventures and Bill and Melinda Gates.[1] It specializes in mathematical modelling of infectious disease. As of 2014, its models included malaria, polio and HIV (with EMOD), and they released their source code to the public.[2][3] In 2020, its COVID-19 model "Covasim" was used to guide decision-making during in the COVID-19 pandemic in Oregon and in Washington State,[1][4] gaining national attention.[5][6] The institute is located in Bellevue, Washington.

Disease modeling software

EMOD is the group's individual-based disease modeling software (not a compartmental model) initially coded c. 2005. It has been released to the public as open-source software. As of 2015, the software could model malaria, HIV, tuberculosis, dengue, polio and typhoid.[7]

References
  1. Sandi Doughton (March 15, 2020). "How big will the coronavirus outbreak get? This Bellevue scientist is figuring that out". The Seattle Times.
  2. Eaton et al. 2015.
  3. Ross Reynolds (March 14, 2014). "Improving The Battle Against Infectious Diseases" (audio). Seattle: KUOW-FM.
  4. Tess Riski (March 31, 2020). "How Bad Will Oregon's Outbreak Get? It Depends on Which Experts You Ask". Willamette Week. Two reliable studies show divergent COVID-19 outcomes in Oregon.
  5. Todd Bishop; Taylor Soper (April 15, 2020), "As Washington state COVID cases keep falling, here's the data driving the ongoing 'stay home' order", Geekwire
  6. Gillian Friedman (April 3, 2020). "Coronavirus: How the West Coast is winning, and what Utah can learn". Deseret News. Salt Lake City.
  7. Bershteyn et al. 2018.

Sources
  • Jeffrey W Eaton; Nicolas Bacaër; Anna Bershteyn; Valentina Cambiano; Anne Cori; Rob E Dorrington; et al. (October 2015), "Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era", The Lancet, 3 (10): e598–e608, doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00080-7, PMID 26385301
  • Bershteyn, Anna; Gerardin, Jaline; Bridenbecker, Daniel; Lorton, Christopher W; Bloedow, Jonathan; Baker, Robert S; Chabot-Couture, Guillaume; Chen, Ye; Fischle, Thomas; Frey, Kurt; Gauld, Jillian S; Hu, Hao; Izzo, Amanda S; Klein, Daniel J; Lukacevic, Dejan; McCarthy, Kevin A; Miller, Joel C; Ouedraogo, Andre Lin; Perkins, T Alex; Steinkraus, Jeffrey; ten Bosch, Quirine A; Ting, Hung-Fu; Titova, Svetlana; Wagner, Bradley G; Welkhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A; Wiswell, Christian N (2018), "Implementation and applications of EMOD, an individual-based multi-disease modeling platform", Pathogens and Disease, 76 (5), doi:10.1093/femspd/fty059, ISSN 2049-632X, PMID 29986020


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