Farmers' Almanac

Founded in 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac mixes a blend of long-range weather predictions, humor, fun facts, and advice on gardening, cooking, fishing, conservation, and other topics.

The Farmers’ Almanac has had seven editors. Poet, astronomer, and teacher David Young held the post for 34 years starting from when he and publisher Jacob Mann first founded The Almanac Publishing Company in Morristown, New Jersey. Following Young’s death in 1852, astronomer Samuel Hart Wright became editor.

In 1933 Ray Geiger took over as the sixth editor of the Farmers’ Almanac and began what became the longest-running editorship in Farmers’ Almanac history.

In 1994 Ray's son Peter became editor. Sandi Duncan is now Managing Editor with him. Sandi was the first female editor in 178 years to hold an editorial position.

The first edition of the Farmers' Almanac, from 1818

Predictions for each edition are made as far as two years in advance. The U.S. retail edition of the Farmers' Almanac contains weather predictions for 7 U.S. climatic zones, defined by the publishers, in the continental United States, broken into 3-day intervals. Seasonal maps and summaries for each season are also shared in each new edition, as are forecasts for annual sporting events. Predictions cover 16 months, from the previous September (through December of the publication year).

The Farmers' Almanac will only state publicly that their method is an “exclusive mathematical and astronomical formula, that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and many other factors." The Almanac's forecaster is referred to by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee. According to the publishers, the true identity of the forecaster is kept secret to prevent them from being "badgered."

Publishers point to the fact that "many longtime Almanac followers claim that their forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate" on their website. Their website also contains a list of the many more "famous" weather predictions they have accurately forewarned of and like to point out that they’ve been predicting the weather longer than the National Weather Service.

Most scientific analyses of the accuracy of Farmers' Almanac forecasts have shown a 50% rate of accuracy,[1][2] no greater than random chance,[3] but higher than that of groundhog prognostication, another folklore method of forecasting.[4] USA Today states that "according to numerous media analyses neither the Old Farmer's Almanac nor the Farmers' Almanac gets it right."[5]

In 1997, an online version was created at FarmersAlmanac.com. The Almanac has over 1.2 million followers on Facebook, and is also on Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest and other social media sites.

Most editions of the Farmers' Almanac include a "human crusade," advocating for a change in some accepted social practice or custom. Previous crusades have included: "How Much Daylight Are We Really Saving," a recommendation for a revised Daylight Saving Time schedule (2007); "Why is Good Service So Hard to Schedule," recommending that service providers offer more specific timeframes when scheduling home visits (2006); "A Kinder, Gentler Nation," urging readers to exercise more common courtesy (2003); "Saturday: The Trick to Making Halloween a Real Treat," advocating that the observance of Halloween be moved to the last Saturday in October (1999); "A Cure for Doctors' Office Delays," demanding more prompt medical service and calling for a "Patients' Bill of Rights" (1996); and "Pennies Make No Sense," which sought to eliminate the penny, and to permanently replace the dollar bill with less costly-to-produce dollar coins (1989).[6]

Other pieces that have attracted attention over the years include:

• Farmers' Almanac's 2010 list of the "5 Worst Weather Cities",[7] which elicited a call for retraction from syracuse.com[8] after naming Syracuse, New York as the worst winter weather city.
• The 2014 Winter Outlook,[9] which called for a winter storm to hit just about the time Super Bowl XLVIII was to be played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey (no such storm materialized, and the weather was actually warmer than average at the time of the event).[10] However, a major winter storm did strike the area the day after the game.
• The 2001 campaign to name an official National Dessert (readers resoundingly responded in favor of traditional apple pie).