Deep Adaptation

Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy is a paper self-published in July 2018 by sustainability leadership professor Jem Bendell. The concept of "deep adaptation" purports that humanity needs to prepare for a fundamental collapse of society due to climate change, with a likelihood of complete societal collapse. Unlike climate change adaptation, which aims to adapt societies gradually to the effects of climate change, Deep Adaptation is premised on accepting abrupt transformation of the environment as a consideration for making decisions today. Vice noted that it had a very large readership for an academic paper, having been downloaded more than 100,000 times as early as February 2019[1][2] (and more than 600,000 times as of November 2019).[1] In March 2019 Bendell founded the Deep Adaptation Forum to support practitioners and concerned citizens involved in preparing for what he considers as a very likely collapse of industrial civilisation.[1]

Deep Adaptation was not published in an official scientific journal, and was rejected from the Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal for failing the peer-review process. Climate scientists Michael E. Mann and Gavin Schmidt have criticized the paper. Mann has claimed Bendell is "wrong on the science and impacts: There is no credible evidence that we face 'inevitable near-term collapse,'" while Schmidt pointed out inaccuracies: "Model projections have not underestimated temperature changes, not everything that is non-linear is therefore 'out of control.' Blaming 'increased volatility from more energy in the atmosphere' for anything is silly. The evidence for 'inevitable societal collapse' is very weak to non-existent." In the same article, lead author of the 2019 UN global disaster risk assessment, Scott Williams, said "Bendell is closer to the mark than his critics,” as the UN report was “close to stating that ‘collapse is inevitable’."[1]

Subsequent to the paper's release in July 2018, more climate scientists have warned of societal collapse. In June 2020, climate scientist Will Steffen has explained that “collapse is the most likely outcome of the present trajectory” and former lead author with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber said “there is a very big risk that we will just end our civilisation.”[3] Steffen told the BBC: "With global emissions continuing to rise, and no signs that the Paris targets will be respected, Jem Bendell has some justification in taking the strong position that it is already too late and we'd better prepare to deal with the collapse of the globalised economic system.. I can't say for sure that Jem Bendell is right… but we certainly can't rule it out."[4]

Content
Jem Bendell, the paper's author, in 2019

Bendell describes Deep Adaptation as an ethical or philosophical framework, rather than as a projection.[5] The paper describes the likelihood of near-term collapse, leading to the argument that envisioning what to do after the post-collapse future arrives requires more than just mitigation.[6] Supporting his argument that mitigation efforts cannot be the only strategy, Bendell argues that even an absolute end to carbon emissions, use of geoengineering, or large-scale infrastructure changes are now insufficient to avert systemic upheaval.[6][1] He describes a three-part strategy to allow 'deep adaptation' to climate change: "resilience" through infrastructure upgrades, "relinquishment" by giving up aspects of civilization that lead to additional climate risk, and "restoration," a return to older culture values and practices.[6] After the paper was released, he added a fourth part to the framework, "reconciliation" which "is all about living in peace."[4]

The paper's writing style is dissimilar to most academic works, including figurative language, dark humor, and the stark conclusion that "climate-induced societal collapse is now inevitable in the near term," in around a decade.[5][6]

Publication

Bendell used his 2017 sabbatical to review climate science. Bendell began writing Deep Adaptation towards the end of this time period, describing his interpretation of the current state of climate research.[5]

Bendell initially submitted his paper for publication at the Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, but was not able to do so.[5][1] Bendell instead decided to publish the paper on his blog and through the Institute for Leadership and Sustainability, a department at the University of Cumbria started by Bendell.[5]

Bendell argues on his blog that the journal requested major revisions that would change the significance of the paper and therefore it was a rejection.[5][1] The publisher stated that the paper required major revisions due to a lack of scientific rigor. The publisher has requested that Bendell revise his blog post to reflect this statement, but as of February 2019 he had not done so.[5] Instead, Bendell has responded to the specific criticisms of the paper on his personal blog.[7]

The paper has been translated into a variety of languages.[4]

Reception

From the scientific community

Some prominent climate scientists have dismissed Bendell's predictions. One of the reviewers at the time, as well as climatologist Michael E. Mann and Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, had criticisms of the paper's core scientific arguments. The reviewer and Mann suggested that the paper's conclusions do not follow climate science, with Mann describing the paper as "pseudo-scientific nonsense." Gavin Schmidt argued that, though local collapse events might occur more frequently as climatic changes progress, the paper fails entirely to show why global collapse might occur. However, lead author of the 2019 UN global disaster risk assessment, Scott Williams, said "Bendell is closer to the mark than his critics,” as the UN report was “close to stating that ‘collapse is inevitable’."[1] Myles Allen, professor of Geosystem Science at the University of Oxford, argues that, "So far, the system's responded to greenhouse gas emissions almost exactly as predicted. So to say it's about to change and become much worse is speculation."[1][4]

Further, Professor Mann expresses concern that Bendell's "doomist framing" may "lead us down the same very path of inaction as outright climate change denial. Fossil fuel interests love this framing."[1] In response, BBC reported that "Bendell rejects the scientists' claims and says people have been inspired by his paper to demand radical government measures to tackle climate change."[4] In a co-authored article on a survey of members of the Deep Adaptation Forum he wrote that "almost half respondents consider that they themselves are taking acts of leadership."[8]

From general audiences

Writing in the libertarian magazine Reason, Ronald Bailey argues "that as well-meaning as he may be, Bendell is engaging in 'apocalypse abuse.' Like earlier practitioners of that suspect craft, Bendell operates chiefly by extrapolating only the most horrendous trends, while systematically ignoring any ameliorating or optimistic ones, offering worst-case scenarios in the guise of balanced presentations."[9]

In an April 2020 interview with the BBC, Jeremy Lent argues that, "If he [Bendell] chooses to go with his gut instinct and conclude collapse is inevitable, he has every right to do so, but I believe it's irresponsible to package this as a scientifically valid conclusion, and thereby criticize those who interpret the data otherwise as being in denial."[4] Lent expanded on these points in an article for the left-wing political magazine CounterPunch in which said "Deep Adaptation threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing the risk of collapse by diluting efforts toward societal transformation."[10]

Some commentators in the environmental movement, such as Professor Rupert Read, have welcomed Bendell's analysis, suggesting that although the inevitability of societal collapse can be debated, its likelihood means the concept of Deep Adaptation is important to engage with.[11]

Influence

As of February 2019, Deep Adaptation had been downloaded over 100,000 times since release;[5] the figure was over 350,000 times as of April 2019,[12] and over 600,000 times by November 2019.[1]

Bendell's paper led to popularity of the term "deep adaptation", as well as the emergence of a variety of online communities centered on associated ideas.[13] An article by BBC notes that the paper "has become the closest thing to a manifesto for a generation of self-described 'climate doomers'" and that it "sparked a global movement with thousands of followers" who wish to "adapt their lifestyles to cope with the harsh conditions" through the principles of Deep Adaptation.[4]

BBC presenter John Humphrys noted that the paper has "influenced the founders of Extinction Rebellion."[14]

A Facebook group titled "Positive Deep Adaptation" has nearly 10,000 members, and 3,000 individuals participate in an online forum on Deep Adaptation.[4] An article in Bloomberg notes that a "LinkedIn group titled 'Deep Adaptation'" includes professors, government scientists, and investors.[13]

References
  1. Ahmed, Nafeez (9 January 2020). "The Collapse of Civilisation May Have Already Begun". Vice. Retrieved 19 December 2019.
  2. Green, Matthew (11 April 2019). "Extinction Rebellion: inside the new climate resistance". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2019.
  3. Moses, Asher (5 June 2020). "'Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome': Top Climate Scientists". Voice Of Action. Retrieved 9 June 2020.
  4. Hunter, Jack (16 March 2020). "The 'climate doomers' preparing for society to fall apart". BBC News. Retrieved 20 April 2020.
  5. Tsjeng, Zing (27 February 2019). "The Climate Change Paper So Depressing It's Sending People to Therapy". Vice. Retrieved 20 April 2020.
  6. Meador, Ron (15 October 2018). "New outlook on global warming: Best prepare for social collapse, and soon". MinnPost. Retrieved 20 April 2020.
  7. Bendell, Jem (27 February 2020). "The Worst Argument to Try to Win: Response to Criticism of the Climate Science in Deep Adaptation". Jem Bendell. Retrieved 9 June 2020.
  8. Bendell, Jem; Cave, Dorian (8 June 2020). "Does anticipating societal collapse motivate pro-social behaviours?". Initiative for Leadership and Sustainability. Retrieved 21 June 2020.
  9. Ronald, Bailey (29 March 2019). "Good News! No Need to Have a Mental Breakdown Over 'Climate Collapse'". Reason Magazine. Retrieved 21 April 2020.
  10. Lent, Jeremy (8 April 2019). "What Will You Say to Your Grandchildren?". CounterPunch. Retrieved 21 April 2020.
  11. "Climate change and deep adaptation". The Ecologist. Retrieved 20 June 2020.
  12. Green, Matthew (11 April 2019). "Extinction Rebellion: inside the new climate resistance". Financial Times. Retrieved 22 April 2020.
  13. Flavelle, Christopher (26 September 2018). "New Climate Debate: How to Adapt to the End of the World". Bloomberg Businessweek. Retrieved 20 April 2020.
  14. Humphrys, John. "Extinction Rebellion: Noble and Necessary or a Pointless Nuisance?". YouGov. Retrieved 20 June 2020.
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