Bavarian state election, 2018

Bavarian state election, 2018
14 October 2018
All 180 seats in the Landtag (overhang and leveling seats possible)
91+ seats needed for a majority
Turnout 72.5

 
Leader Markus Söder Natascha Kohnen Hubert Aiwanger
Party CSU SPD FW
Last election 101 seats, 47.7% 42 seats, 20.6% 19 seats, 9.0%
Current seats 101 42 17
 
Leader Katharina Schulze
Ludwig Hartmann		 Martin Hagen
Party Green FDP
Last election 18 seats, 8.6% 0 seats, 3.3%
Current seats 17 1
Incumbent Minister President

Markus Söder
CSU

The 2018 Bavarian state election was held on 14 October 2018 to elect the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.[1]

Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state elections[2] which took place on 15 September 2013. This would theoretically allow an election date between 19 August and 11 November 2018, but in practice the elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October.[3] The Bavarian state government proposed 14 October 2018 as the election date on 9 January 2018[4] and officially set it on 20 February after hearing the parties to the state parliament.[5]

The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and a possible new division of the constituencies, was 15 June 2016 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag).[6] On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election[7] This was done on 6 September 2016.

Delegates to the internal constituency meetings could be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. since 16 April 2017. The actual constituency candidates had been eligible since 16 July 2017.[8][9] The parties and other organised electoral groups which had not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Land Parliament or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals (CDU, CSU, SPD, Free Voters of Bavaria, Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, Die Linke, AfD) had to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election, i.e. by 16 July 2018 at the latest.[10] The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures had to be submitted by 2 August 2018.[11]

Electoral system

In contrast to the Bundestag election law, the distribution of seats according to proportional representation also takes the first votes into account. There is no nationwide proportional representation, the distribution of seats takes place within the seven administrative districts (Regierungsbezirke), which are referred to in the electoral law as constituencies. Parties and groups of voters who obtain at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the distribution of seats. The constituencies are divided into constituencies in which one member is directly elected. The number of constituencies is about half the number of seats in the constituency.

Changes in constituencies and constituencies

In the statutory constituency report of September 2016, the state government stated that the numerical distribution of the 180 state parliament mandates among the seven government districts that form the constituencies at the same time would have to be changed due to changes in the number of inhabitants. It was recommended that a list mandate previously to be awarded in the Lower Franconia constituency be allocated to the Upper Bavaria constituency.

Within Upper Bavaria, the additional mandate was used to reshape the constituencies in the state capital of Munich, as two of them - Giesing and Milbertshofen[12] - exceeded the average population by more than 15 percent. Upper Bavaria now has 31 constituencies for the 2018 elections, nine of which are accounted for by the state capital.

Seats and constituencies are distributed as follows:[13]

Seats Stimm-
kreise
Upper Bavarian electoral district 61 31
Lower Bavarian electoral district 18 9
Upper Palatinaten electoral district 16 8
Upper Franconian electoral district 16 8
Middle Franconian electoral district 24 12
Lower Franconian electoral district 19 10
Swabian electoral district 26 13
Total 180 91

Starting position

Anti-Söder-election poster in Großnöbach (Fahrenzhausen) in the Freising district.

Since the state elections in Bavaria in 2013, the CSU has again had the absolute majority of seats, as it did from 1962 to 2008. In December 2017, however,Minister President of Bavaria Horst Seehofer (CSU) finally declared his renunciation of the top candidate in the state elections in Bavaria 2018, partly due to the poor performance of the CSU in the 2017 Bundestag elections. In March 2018, he also resigned from his office as Minister President of Bavaria before the end of the parliamentary term. The former Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder was elected as the new top CSU candidate and later also as Minister President of Bavaria in the state parliament.

Coalition statements

Before the election, CSU faction leader Thomas Kreuzer declared that the CSU would not form a coalition with the AfD or the Greens after the election.[14]

Campaign

CSU

In 2018, the CSU Markus Söder's government enacted the Kreuzpflicht, an obligation to display crosses at the entrance of public buildings. Söder has stated that the crosses are not to be seen as Christian symbols, but as symbols of Bavarian cultural identity.[15]

Some observers have described the Kreuzpflicht as a measure to appeal to voters deserting the Christian-democratic conservative CSU for the right-wing nationalist AfD party. Also the CSU interior minister Horst Seehofer has taken a harder line on immigration.[16]

Major political parties

Ballot paper for the second vote in constituency 104 of the Upper Bavaria constituency.
  • Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU)
  • Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)
  • Free voters (Freie Wähler)
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens (Grüne)
  • Free Democratic Party (FDP)
  • The Left (Die Linke)
  • Alternative for Germany (AfD)
Bavaria
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Bavaria

Leaders' debate

A Leaders' debate between Minister President Markus Söder (CSU) and Ludwig Hartmann (Alliance 90/The Greens) took place on 26 September 2018. The Bayerischer Rundfunk justified the party selection with the result of the Bayerntrend of September 12, 2018, according to which CSU and Greens can hope for the most votes in the election. SPD Secretary-General Uli Grötsch described this decision as "completely absurd".[17] A programme with representatives of the other five parties, whose survey results were above or close to the five percent hurdle, followed on 28 September 2018: Natascha Kohnen (SPD), Hubert Aiwanger (Free Voters), Martin Sichert (AfD), Martin Hagen (FDP) and Ates Gürpinar (The Left). The first programme was moderated by BR editor-in-chief Christian Nitsche, the second by Ursula Heller.

Opinion polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 CSU SPD FW Grüne FDP Linke AfD Others Lead
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 10–11 Oct 2018 1,075 34 12 10 19 5.5 4 10 5.5 15
Civey 6–10 Oct 2018 5,063 32.9 11.0 9.8 18.5 5.9 3.9 12.8 5.2 14.4
INSA 2–8 Oct 2018 1,707 33 10 11 18 5.5 4.5 14 4 15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 1–4 Oct 2018 1,122 35 12 10 18 5.5 4.5 10 5 17
Infratest dimap 1–2 Oct 2018 1,002 33 11 11 18 6 4.5 10 6.5 15
GMS 20–26 Sep 2018 1,004 35 13 10 16 5 4 12 5 19
INSA 21–25 Sep 2018 1,064 34 11 10 17 6 4 14 4 17
Civey 19–23 Sep 2018 5,061 36.0 12.0 8.6 17.9 5.0 3.3 13.2 4.0 18.1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Sep 2018 1,114 35 13 11 18 5 4 10 4 17
Infratest dimap 5–10 Sep 2018 1,000 35 11 11 17 5 5 11 5 18
GMS 4–10 Sep 2018 1,006 36 12 7 16 6 4 14 5 20
Civey 30 Aug–9 Sep 2018 5,046 35.8 12.1 8.1 16.5 5.8 2.7 13.7 5.3 19.3
INSA 23–27 Aug 2018 1,033 36 13 8 15 6 3 14 5 21
Civey 15–26 Aug 2018 5,049 37.8 11.8 8.1 15.1 6.1 2.5 13.5 5.1 22.7
Civey 30 Jul–13 Aug 2018 5,047 38.1 12.3 7.3 15.0 5.3 2.7 15.2 4.1 22.9
Forsa 25 Jul–9 Aug 2018 1,105 37 12 8 17 5 4 13 4 20
GMS 25–31 Jul 2018 1,004 39 12 8 14 6 3 13 5 25
Infratest dimap 11–16 Jul 2018 1,003 38 13 9 16 5 4 12 3 22
GMS 5–11 Jul 2018 1,007 39 12 7 14 6 3 14 5 25
Forsa 4–6 Jul 2018 1,003 38 12 8 15 6 3 14 4 23
Civey 23 Jun–5 Jul 2018 5,093 42.5 13.7 6.0 13.2 5.2 2.8 13.1 3.5 28.8
INSA 25–27 Jun 2018 1,231 41 13 6 13 5 3 14 5 27
Forsa 21–22 Jun 2018 1,033 40 13 8 14 5 3 13 4 26
Civey 19 May–7 Jun 2018 5,066 41.1 13.4 7.0 12.6 4.8 3.5 13.5 4.1 27.6
GMS 11–16 May 2018 1,005 42 13 7 12 5 2 13 6 29
Civey 23 Apr–11 May 2018 5,082 42.1 13.7 6.6 13.5 5.1 2.9 12.0 4.1 28.4
Infratest dimap 22–27 Apr 2018 1,002 41 12 7 14 6 3 12 5 27
GMS 20–26 Apr 2018 1,002 44 14 6 11 5 3 12 5 30
INSA 17–20 Apr 2018 1,005 42 13 6 13 7 3 13 3 29
Civey 19 Mar–5 Apr 2018 5,048 44.5 14.8 6.5 11.3 4.2 2.8 11.9 4.0 29.7
GMS 16–21 Mar 2018 1,004 43 15 6 11 6 3 12 4 28
Civey 2–15 Mar 2018 5,004 41.4 14.2 8.4 12.0 4.6 3.0 12.1 4.3 27.2
Civey 12–26 Feb 2018 5,040 39.4 13.4 8.6 12.2 5.3 3.5 12.3 5.3 26.0
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,027 42 14 7 14 6 3 10 4 28
GMS 1–9 Feb 2018 1,510 40 15 6 11 6 3 12 7 25
Civey 6–16 Jan 2018 5,040 39.9 14.8 7.6 11.4 5.8 3.4 13.1 4.0 21.1
Infratest dimap 3–8 Jan 2018 1,002 40 16 7 14 5 3 10 5 24
GMS 27 Dec 2017–1 Jan 2018 1,007 39 15 7 10 7 3 12 7 24
INSA 12–13 Dec 2017 1,003 40 15 7 12 7 4 12 3 25
Civey 24 Nov–13 Dec 2017 5,019 36.7 16.0 8.3 12.1 7.1 2.9 12.9 4.0 20.7
GMS 27–29 Nov 2017 1,006 37 15 7 10 8 3 14 6 22
Civey 16 Oct–16 Nov 2017 5,034 38.8 14.9 6.5 10.8 8.0 3.6 13.5 3.9 23.9
Forsa 6–9 Nov 2017 1,017 38 17 7 11 9 4 11 3 21
INSA 2–3 Nov 2017 1,033 37 17 8 10 8 4 13 3 20
GMS 13–18 Oct 2017 1,004 41 15 6 11 7 3 13 4 26
Civey 25 Sep–13 Oct 2017 5,043 40.7 14.1 7.0 12.4 7.1 3.4 11.3 4.0 26.6
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 38.8 15.3 2.7 9.8 10.2 6.1 12.4 4.8 23.5
Infratest dimap 4–9 Jan 2017 1,001 45 14 7 13 4 3 10 4 31
GMS 27 Oct–2 Nov 2016 1,005 44 18 6 10 6 2 9 5 26
GMS 8–12 Oct 2016 1,013 45 19 6 10 5 2 9 4 26
GMS 9–14 Sep 2016 1,015 45 18 5 12 5 2 9 4 27
Forsa 4–15 Jul 2016 1,008 43 16 6 14 4 3 8 6 27
Infratest dimap 11–14 Jul 2016 1,000 45 17 5 13 4 – 9 7 28
GMS 8–13 Jul 2016 1,015 47 17 6 11 5 2 7 5 30
INSA 17 May–8 Jun 2016 1,698 47.5 17.5 4.5 11.5 3.5 3.5 7 5 30
Forsa 23 May–3 Jun 2016 1,010 40 16 6 14 4 3 10 7 24
GMS 27 May–1 Jun 2016 1,021 48 17 6 10 5 2 8 4 31
GMS 15–19 Apr 2016 1,018 48 16 6 10 5 2 9 4 32
GMS 14–16 Mar 2016 1,015 48 16 5 11 5 2 9 4 32
GMS 12–17 Feb 2016 1,010 46 17 5 11 4 2 9 6 29
Infratest dimap 7–11 Jan 2016 1,000 47 16 5 12 3 3 8 6 31
GMS 28 Dec 2015–3 Jan 2016 1,019 45 19 6 10 4 3 7 6 26
GMS 12–18 Nov 2015 1,016 46 18 5 11 4 3 8 5 28
GMS 1–7 Oct 2015 1,019 46 18 6 12 6 – 5 7 28
Forsa 23 Sep–2 Oct 2015 1,007 43 19 5 11 4 3 6 9 24
GMS 10–16 Sep 2015 1,007 49 20 6 10 5 – 2 8 29
GMS 16–22 Jul 2015 1,011 47 20 6 10 5 – 2 10 27
GMS 18–24 Jun 2015 1,012 48 19 7 9 5 2 4 6 29
INSA 5–15 Jun 2015 651 46 20 8 8 4 3 4 7 26
GMS 7–13 May 2015 1,008 48 18 7 10 4 – 5 8 30
GMS 9–15 Apr 2015 1,016 48 19 7 10 4 2 4 6 29
Forsa 19–31 Mar 2015 1,266 47 19 7 11 3 2 4 7 28
Infratest dimap 8–12 Jan 2015 1,004 46 19 10 9 3 3 4 6 27
GMS Nov 2014 2,000 49 18 7 9 2 2 5 8 31
pollytix 13–23 Nov 2014 1,700 47 20 8 10 2 3 6 4 27
Emnid 1 Oct–4 Nov 2014 2,114 48 18 9 9 2 2 5 7 30
2014 European election 25 May 2014 – 40.5 20.1 4.3 12.1 3.1 2.9 8.1 9.0 20.4
Infratest dimap 10–12 Mar 2014 1,002 46 18 12 11 – – – 13 28
Infratest dimap 9–13 Jan 2014 1,004 49 19 9 10 4 2 – 7 30
2013 federal election 22 Sep 2013 – 49.3 20.0 2.7 8.4 5.1 3.8 4.3 6.4 29.3
2013 state election 15 Sep 2013 – 47.7 20.6 9.0 8.6 3.3 2.1 – 8.7 27.1

Policy areas relevant to elections

On behalf of the RTL/n-tv Trendbarometer, Forsa Institute interviewed the survey participants about the "biggest problems at state level".[18] "In Bavaria, 34 percent of those surveyed named the CSU and Prime Minister Markus Söder. 28 percent called the subject refugees, 26 percent 'the situation on the housing market'".[19]

Infratest dimap asked respondents to the ARD primary election survey which topic is very important for their election decision. In the order of most percentage points these were school and education policy (55 %), nature conservation in Bavaria (46 %), creation of affordable housing (45 %), reduction of injustice in society (41 %), security and police (40 %), regulation of immigration (39 %), the behaviour of Horst Seehofer in the federal government (26 %), the cooperation of CDU, CSU and SPD in the federal government (21 %).[20]


Voter turnout

The voter turnout in the city of Munich remained high. Until 2 p.m. it was 54.6 percent including the postal voters. In 2013, the turnout at that time was 49.7 percent.[21]

References

  1. ↑ Wahltermine
  2. ↑ Artikel 16 (1) Satz 3 Bayerische Verfassung
  3. ↑ Landeswahlleiter Bayern: Übersicht über Wahltermine und -ergebnisse, abgerufen am 7. September 2016
  4. ↑ Wahltermine
  5. ↑ Bayerischer Rechts- und Verwaltungsreport: Staatsregierung setzt 14.10.2018 als Termin für Landtagswahl fest, Meldung vom 20. Februar 2018
  6. ↑ Artikel 21 (1) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  7. ↑ Artikel 5 (5) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  8. ↑ Landeswahlleiter: Landtagswahl 2018: Fristen für die Aufstellung der Bewerber
  9. ↑ Artikel 28 (2) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  10. ↑ Art. 24 LWG
  11. ↑ Art. 26 LWG
  12. ↑ Bayerische Staatsregierung: Bericht der Bayerischen Staatsregierung über die Veränderung der Einwohnerzahlen in den Wahl- und den Stimmkreisen nach Art. 5 Abs. 5 des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 6. September 2016, abgerufen am 7. September 2016
  13. ↑ "Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes" (PDF). Bayerischer Landtag. 2017-03-31. Retrieved 2018-03-08.
  14. ↑ CSU schließt schwarz-grüne Koalition in Bayern aus. Welt Online, 8. September 2018.
  15. ↑ France-Presse, Agence (2018-04-25). "Bavarian leader orders Christian crosses on all state buildings". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-05-31.
  16. ↑ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/germany-hardline-csu-leader-unhappy-merkel-migration-plan-180701174707967.html
  17. ↑ Schwarz gegen Grün faz.net, 18. September 2018
  18. ↑ "Viele Bayern halten Markus Söder für ein Problem". Die Zeit. 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
  19. ↑ "Bayern sehen CSU und Söder als Problem". n-tv. 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
  20. ↑ Ellen Ehni (2018-10-04). "CSU sackt auf 33 Prozent". Tagesschau.de. Retrieved 2018-10-05.
  21. ↑ "Münchens Wahlbeteiligung mittlerweile bei 54,6 Prozent". welt.de. Retrieved 14 October 2018.
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